Edge editions: January 2009

Friday, January 30, 2009

Edge 273: Nathan Wolfe, Daniel Kahneman, Nassim Taleb

Edge 273 -- January 30, 2009
(11,250 words)

http://www.edge.org/

This online EDGE edition with streaming video is available at:
http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge273.html

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THE THIRD CULTURE
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WAITING FOR "THE FINAL PLAGUE"
A Talk with Nathan Wolfe

We should be and we can be doing a much better job to predict and prevent pandemics. But the really bold idea is that we could reach a point--and this is a distant point in the future--where we become so good at this that we really reach a point where we have the "final plague," and where we are really capable of catching so many of these things that new pandemics become an oddity. I think that is something that we should certainly have as an ideal.

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EDGE @ DLD
REFLECTIONS ON A CRISIS
Daniel Kahneman & Nassim Nicholas Taleb: A Conversation in Munich
(Moderator: John Brockman)
EDGE VIDEO

View the complete 1 hour HD streaming video of the EDGE event that took place at Hubert Burda Media's Digital Life Design Conference (DLD) in Munich on January 27th as the greatest living psychologist and the foremost scholar of extreme events discuss hindsight biases, the illusion of patterns, perception of risk, and denial.

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[From FOCUS ONLINE - "Are Bankers Charlatans?" (translated):

"At blame for the financial crisis is the nature of man, say two renowned scientists: Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman and bestselling author Nassim Taleb ( "The Black Swan").

"Two men sitting on the stage. Left. Daniel Kahneman, 74, bright-eyed, Nobel Prize winner. Right Nassim Taleb, 49, former Wall Street banker, best-selling author. Both speak on the future of Digital Life Design Conference (DLD) in Munich on the financial crisis, about the beginning--mainly they talk about people. They say it is due to human nature, that the crisis has broken out. And they choose harsh words in discussing the scale of the disaster.

"Kahneman explains why there are bubbles in the financial markets, even though everyone knows that they eventually burst. The researchers used the comparison with the weather: If there is little rain for three years, people begin to believe that this is the normal situation. If over the years stocks only increase, people can't imagine a break in this trend.

"Those responsible must go--today and not tomorrow"

"Taleb speaks out sharply against the bankers. The people in control of taxpayer's money are spending billions of dollars. "I want those responsible for the crisis gone today, today and not tomorrow," he says, leaning forward vigorously. The risk models of banks are a plague, he says, the bankers are charlatans.

"It is nonsense to think that we can assess risks and thus protect against a crash. Taleb has become famous with his theory of the black swan described in his eponymous bestsellers described. Black swans, which are events that are not previously seen--not even with the best model. "People will never be able to control a coincidence," he says.

The early warning

"Taleb had an early warning before the crisis. In 2003 he took note of the balance sheet of the U.S. mortgage finance giant Fannie Mae, and he saw "dynamite".

"In autumn last year, the U.S. government instituted A dramatic bailout. Taleb said in the "Sunday Times" in 2008: "Bankers are very dangerous." And even now, he sees a scandal: He provocatively asks what have the banks done with the government bailout money. "They have paid out more bonuses, and they have increased their risks." And it was not their own money.

"Taleb calls for rigorous changes: nationalize banks--and abolish financial models. Kahneman does not quite agree with him. Certainly, the models are not capable of predicting a collapse. But one should not ignore our human nature. People will always require and use models and get benefit from them--even if they are wrong."]

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HOW WORDS COULD END A WAR
By Scott Atran and Jeremy Ginges

..Across the world, people believe that devotion to sacred or core values that incorporate moral beliefs -- like the welfare of family and country, or commitment to religion and honor -- are, or ought to be, absolute and inviolable. Our studies, carried out with the support of the National Science Foundation and the Defense Department, suggest that people will reject material compensation for dropping their commitment to sacred values and will defend those values regardless of the costs.

In our research, we surveyed nearly 4,000 Palestinians and Israelis from 2004 to 2008, questioning citizens across the political spectrum including refugees, supporters of Hamas and Israeli settlers in the West Bank. We asked them to react to hypothetical but realistic compromises in which their side would be required to give away something it valued in return for a lasting peace.

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THE REALITY CLUB
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On Jerry Coyne's "Does The Empirical Nature Of Science Contradict The Revelatory Nature Of Faith?": George Dyson, Emanuel Derman, Karl W. Giberson, Kenneth R. Miller

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IN THE NEWS
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FOCUS ONLINE
ARE BANKERS CHARLATANS?
Sind Banker Scharlatane? (German Original)
By Ansgar Siemens, FOCUS online editor

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BLOOMBERG NEWS
Wall Street Bonuses May Go Way of Dodo Amid Bailouts (Update2)
By Dawn Kopecki and Christine Harper

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THE NEW YORK TIMES
DAVOS DIARY
Nassim Taleb: "I Was Happy Lehman Went Bust"
Edited by Andrew Ross Sorkin

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BLOOMBERG NEWS
Taleb Says Nationalize Banks, You Can't Trust Them (Update2)
By Svenja O'Donnell and Francine Lacqua

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NEW YORKER
THE DYSTOPIANS
By Ben McGrath

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THE GUARDIAN
Those genius financial doomsayers: a round-up
By Stephen Moss

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BBC NEWS
How Bad Is The Crisis Going To Get
By Tim Weber

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BOOKS FROM EDGE

Now Available in Bookstores and Online...

WHAT HAVE YOU CHANGED YOUR MIND ABOUT (Harper Perennial)
Edited by John Brockman
With An Introduction By BRIAN ENO
http://www.amazon.com/What-Have-Changed-Your-About/dp/0061686549

"An intellectual treasure trove"
SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE

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This online EDGE edition with streaming video is available at:
http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge273.html

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Edge Foundation, Inc. is a nonprofit private operating foundation under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code.
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EDGE

John Brockman, Editor and Publisher
Russell Weinberger, Associate Publisher
Karla Taylor, Editorial Assistant

Published by EDGE Foundation, Inc.,
5 East 59th Street, New York, NY 10022

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EDGE Newsbytes: http://www.edge.org/newsbytes.html
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Friday, January 23, 2009

Edge 272: Jerry Coyne: Does The Empirical Nature Of Science Contradict The Revelatory Nature Of Faith?

Edge 272 - January 23, 2008
(6,700 words)

http://www.edge.org/

This online EDGE edition is available at:
http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge272.html

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THE THIRD CULTURE
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COMING SOON...

11:30 Tuesday, January 27th, Munich

REFLECTIONS ON A CRISIS
Daniel Kahneman & Nassim Nicholas Taleb: A Conversation in Munich
(Moderator: John Brockman)

The greatest living psychologist and the foremost scholar of extreme events discuss hindsight biases, the illusion of patterns, perception of risk, and denial

An EDGE @ DLD Event

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DOES THE EMPIRICAL NATURE OF SCIENCE CONTRADICT THE REVELATORY NATURE OF FAITH?
By Jerry Coyne
An Edge Special Event

"The real question," writes biologist Jerry Coyne in his New Republic article "Seeing And Believing", is whether there is a philosophical incompatibility between religion and science. Does the empirical nature of science contradict the revelatory nature of faith? Are the gaps between them so great that the two institutions must be considered essentially antagonistic?

We no longer have President George W. Bush, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, and Senator John McCain announcing in August 2006 their support for teaching Intelligent Design in pubic schools. That was a mobilizing moment for the champions of rational thinking such as Coyne, Richard Dawkins, Daniel C. Dennett, Sam Harris, Christopher Hitchens, and P.Z. Myers to mount an unrelenting campaign against superstition, supernaturalism, and ignorance. The dilemma as Coyne notes is that against the backdrop of scientific knowledge available to us today, these three words are applicable not only to the texts that inform literal fundamentalists but also to the rarefied theological mumbo-jumbo of the most refined, liberal theologians.

On inauguration day, President Obama announced the goal of "restoring science to its rightful place" while, in the same speech, acknowledging that nonbelievers are citizens of this nation in the same way as followers of religion. Isn't now time for scientists to stop the disengenuous and hypocritical homage to what Dennett has termed "belief in belief", and once and for all put a nail in the coffin of the late Stephen Jay Gould's problematic "non-overlapping magisteria" (NOMA)? Isn't it time for science to speak the truth?

But as Coyne points out:

Would that it were that easy! True, there are religious scientists and Darwinian churchgoers. But this does not mean that faith and science are compatible, except in the trivial sense that both attitudes can be simultaneously embraced by a single human mind. (It is like saying that marriage and adultery are compatible because some married people are adulterers. ) It is also true that some of the tensions disappear when the literal reading of the Bible is renounced, as it is by all but the most primitive of JudeoChristian sensibilities. But tension remains. The real question is whether there is a philosophical incompatibility between religion and science. Does the empirical nature of science contradict the revelatory nature of faith? Are the gaps between them so great that the two institutions must be considered essentially antagonistic? The incessant stream of books dealing with this question suggests that the answer is not straightforward."

In the next few days, Edge plans to publish a series of brief responses by selected contributors addressing these issues. ...

THE REALITY CLUB

Lawrence Krauss, Howard Gardner, Lisa Randall, Patrick Bateson, Daniel Everett, Daniel C. Dennett, Lee Smolin ...

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OAF OF OFFICE
By Steven Pinker

How could a famous stickler for grammar have bungled that 35-word passage, among the best-known words in the Constitution? Conspiracy theorists and connoisseurs of Freudian slips have surmised that it was unconscious retaliation for Senator Obama's vote against the chief justice's confirmation in 2005. But a simpler explanation is that the wayward adverb in the passage is blowback from Chief Justice Roberts's habit of grammatical niggling. ...

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ARTICLES OF NOTE
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PUBLICO EDICAO LISBOA
Cover Story--Sunday Magazine
Our Dog Will Become Our Cat
By Ana Gerschenfeld