(11,250 words)
This online EDGE edition with streaming video is available at:
http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge273.html
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THE THIRD CULTURE
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WAITING FOR "THE FINAL PLAGUE"
A Talk with Nathan Wolfe
We should be and we can be doing a much better job to predict and prevent pandemics. But the really bold idea is that we could reach a point--and this is a distant point in the future--where we become so good at this that we really reach a point where we have the "final plague," and where we are really capable of catching so many of these things that new pandemics become an oddity. I think that is something that we should certainly have as an ideal.
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EDGE @ DLD
REFLECTIONS ON A CRISIS
Daniel Kahneman & Nassim Nicholas Taleb: A Conversation in Munich
(Moderator: John Brockman)
EDGE VIDEO
View the complete 1 hour HD streaming video of the EDGE event that took place at Hubert Burda Media's Digital Life Design Conference (DLD) in Munich on January 27th as the greatest living psychologist and the foremost scholar of extreme events discuss hindsight biases, the illusion of patterns, perception of risk, and denial.
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[From FOCUS ONLINE - "Are Bankers Charlatans?" (translated):
"At blame for the financial crisis is the nature of man, say two renowned scientists: Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman and bestselling author Nassim Taleb ( "The Black Swan").
"Two men sitting on the stage. Left. Daniel Kahneman, 74, bright-eyed, Nobel Prize winner. Right Nassim Taleb, 49, former Wall Street banker, best-selling author. Both speak on the future of Digital Life Design Conference (DLD) in Munich on the financial crisis, about the beginning--mainly they talk about people. They say it is due to human nature, that the crisis has broken out. And they choose harsh words in discussing the scale of the disaster.
"Kahneman explains why there are bubbles in the financial markets, even though everyone knows that they eventually burst. The researchers used the comparison with the weather: If there is little rain for three years, people begin to believe that this is the normal situation. If over the years stocks only increase, people can't imagine a break in this trend.
"Those responsible must go--today and not tomorrow"
"Taleb speaks out sharply against the bankers. The people in control of taxpayer's money are spending billions of dollars. "I want those responsible for the crisis gone today, today and not tomorrow," he says, leaning forward vigorously. The risk models of banks are a plague, he says, the bankers are charlatans.
"It is nonsense to think that we can assess risks and thus protect against a crash. Taleb has become famous with his theory of the black swan described in his eponymous bestsellers described. Black swans, which are events that are not previously seen--not even with the best model. "People will never be able to control a coincidence," he says.
The early warning
"Taleb had an early warning before the crisis. In 2003 he took note of the balance sheet of the U.S. mortgage finance giant Fannie Mae, and he saw "dynamite".
"In autumn last year, the U.S. government instituted A dramatic bailout. Taleb said in the "Sunday Times" in 2008: "Bankers are very dangerous." And even now, he sees a scandal: He provocatively asks what have the banks done with the government bailout money. "They have paid out more bonuses, and they have increased their risks." And it was not their own money.
"Taleb calls for rigorous changes: nationalize banks--and abolish financial models. Kahneman does not quite agree with him. Certainly, the models are not capable of predicting a collapse. But one should not ignore our human nature. People will always require and use models and get benefit from them--even if they are wrong."]
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HOW WORDS COULD END A WAR
By Scott Atran and Jeremy Ginges
..Across the world, people believe that devotion to sacred or core values that incorporate moral beliefs -- like the welfare of family and country, or commitment to religion and honor -- are, or ought to be, absolute and inviolable. Our studies, carried out with the support of the National Science Foundation and the Defense Department, suggest that people will reject material compensation for dropping their commitment to sacred values and will defend those values regardless of the costs.
In our research, we surveyed nearly 4,000 Palestinians and Israelis from 2004 to 2008, questioning citizens across the political spectrum including refugees, supporters of Hamas and Israeli settlers in the West Bank. We asked them to react to hypothetical but realistic compromises in which their side would be required to give away something it valued in return for a lasting peace.
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THE REALITY CLUB
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On Jerry Coyne's "Does The Empirical Nature Of Science Contradict The Revelatory Nature Of Faith?": George Dyson, Emanuel Derman, Karl W. Giberson, Kenneth R. Miller
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IN THE NEWS
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FOCUS ONLINE
ARE BANKERS CHARLATANS?
Sind Banker Scharlatane? (German Original)
By Ansgar Siemens, FOCUS online editor
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BLOOMBERG NEWS
Wall Street Bonuses May Go Way of Dodo Amid Bailouts (Update2)
By Dawn Kopecki and Christine Harper
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THE NEW YORK TIMES
DAVOS DIARY
Nassim Taleb: "I Was Happy Lehman Went Bust"
Edited by Andrew Ross Sorkin
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BLOOMBERG NEWS
Taleb Says Nationalize Banks, You Can't Trust Them (Update2)
By Svenja O'Donnell and Francine Lacqua
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NEW YORKER
THE DYSTOPIANS
By Ben McGrath
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THE GUARDIAN
Those genius financial doomsayers: a round-up
By Stephen Moss
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BBC NEWS
How Bad Is The Crisis Going To Get
By Tim Weber
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BOOKS FROM EDGE
Now Available in Bookstores and Online...
WHAT HAVE YOU CHANGED YOUR MIND ABOUT (Harper Perennial)
Edited by John Brockman
With An Introduction By BRIAN ENO
http://www.amazon.com/What-Have-Changed-Your-About/dp/0061686549
"An intellectual treasure trove"
SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE
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This online EDGE edition with streaming video is available at:
http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge273.html
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Edge Foundation, Inc. is a nonprofit private operating foundation under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code.
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EDGE
John Brockman, Editor and Publisher
Russell Weinberger, Associate Publisher
Karla Taylor, Editorial Assistant
Copyright (c) 2009 by EDGE Foundation, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.
Published by EDGE Foundation, Inc.,
5 East 59th Street, New York, NY 10022
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EDGE Newsbytes: http://www.edge.org/newsbytes.html
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